In India, consumer price index CPI inflation stood at 5. The rise in CPI inflation was driven by an increase in fuel and transportation costs along with an increase in some components of the food basket.
Moreover, the record Covid surge across the country now, especially at a time when advanced economies have already started recovering, could put serious upward pressure on inflation. Higher global inflation, rising commodity prices, local lockdowns and a weaker rupee could bring in higher prices in India. While some in the US are worried about inflation rising mainly due to demand side effects, in India supply side factors are also expected to make a dent. As Covid cases surge and deaths rise, collapsing health systems could push state and city governments to impose curfews and restrictions on movement.
Local lockdowns and supply disruptions are likely to stay for a while. Even though the government and businesses are better prepared than they were last year, the preparation is unlikely to suffice for the kind of surge being seen now. It appears that no one expected a second wave of this magnitude. Over and above this, a rise in US inflation could affect India adversely in the coming months. Higher global inflation feeds into domestic prices through imported goods. With the US economy recovering, commodity prices, including oil, have also risen and could rise further.
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